The post-mortem
Who is to blame for Labor’s calamitous performance in this year’s federal election? According to “anonymous sources” speaking to The Drum’s Glenn Milne, campaign director Karl Bitar may be looking to make an exit. He has reportedly been left drained and exhausted by the past few months — brutal not because of any Labor–Liberal stoush, but because of the problems between Rudd and Gillard that so badly derailed the campaign. Indeed, some within the NSW Right faction are privately questioning whether they made the right decision in installing Julia Gillard — parallels are allegedly being drawn with short-lived NSW Premier Nathan Rees (like Gillard, a ‘left-winger’) who the NSW Right brought in to replace a battered leader (Morris Iemma). Rees too failed to gain traction, and after 15 months was also knifed in favour of Kristina Keneally. Gillard would be hoping to make a better impact.
Milne also points out another unhappy parallel for Labor. The nation’s last hung parliament was a boon for the then opposition, which succeeded in fundamentally destabilising the government of the day. The coalition administration led by Robert Menzies was reliant on the support of two independents, who, halfway through the term, switched support to Labor. At the subsequent election, Labor was duly re-elected with an outright majority. Tony Abbott would be keen to see politics play out just as favourably for his side.
The informal vote
No one in their right mind would dare describe the 2010 Australian election campaign as inspiring. One of the clearest signs of how the major parties signally failed to generate electoral enthusiasm was the amount of ‘informal’ votes cast — especially deliberately blank ballot papers. And as Tim Colebatch reports in The Age today, voter apathy hit the Labor party far more than the coalition: 25 of the 30 seats which recorded the largest informal vote ‘swing’ were Labor held.
Hooray!
No, not celebrating the six senators who were elected — certainly not #4 on the list — but rather, the one who wasn’t elected. The Australian Electoral Commission has today confirmed Steve Fielding has not been returned to the Senate. Unfortunately, we still have to put up with him until July next year.
A little too independent?
As many pundits have suggested, Julia Gillard’s new minority government will struggle to last a full three-year term. To pass any legislation, Labor needs at least four additional votes, which it might obtain from any of the four independents, the Greens MP, the cross-bench National MP, Tony Crook, or indeed the support of part or all of the Liberal—National opposition.
Writing for ‘The Drum’, Glenn Milne predicts Tasmanian independent MP Andrew Wilkie will prove to be the most troublesome for Gillard. He paints a profile of someone who has been unable to get along with anyone he has worked with. Driven by ego rather than policy or philosophy, Milne suggests Wilkie will be hard to negotiate with. Though he might have turned down a billion dollar offer from the Liberals, Wilkie could prove to be a costly partner for Labor.
Who wants to be a cabinet minister?
Both Labor and Liberal/National partyrooms have met today for the first time since last month’s election — and this week’s decision by two rural independents to hand minority government over to Labor. And now some important housekeeping tasks will be occupying the minds of both leaders: who to appoint to key frontbench positions. Arguably, Julia Gillard has the harder task. She has to find a home for the man she deposed. Kevin Rudd, by all accounts, would very much like to take on Foreign Affairs. Many in her own party are hardly likely to be elated at the prospect of rewarding someone who, they believe, nearly cost them the election. Then there’s the question of how to promote those figures instrumental in Rudd’s demise — for example, Bill Shorten, who has proven himself a capable parliamentary secretary — without being seen to reward them.
Tony Abbott also has a former leader to accommodate. Like Rudd, Malcolm Turnbull has been promised a senior frontbench position. He might want Treasury — and given perceptions that Joe Hockey is a lightweight in the portfolio, there could be a strong case for doing so. Except Abbott, while in a strong position now, probably doesn’t want to strengthen Turnbull’s position too much. After all, this is still a man who harbours leadership aspirations of his own. Complicating matters further, it appears the party’s finance spokesman, Andrew Robb, also wants to claim the Treasury brief. Having yesterday launched and then shelved a bid to contest for the deputy leadership of the party, Abbott may feel compelled to elevate Robb just to minimise the risks to the party’s stability.
