Actually, things aren't that bad
The prevailing media commentary for months has been that Labor is in a dire position according to the opinion polls, with Julia Gillard’s personal approval ratings alarmingly low. But does the conventional wisdom match the reality?
Alan Kohler argues that it’s not. On Sunday’s edition of ABC TV’s ‘Insiders’ programme, a new segment with pollster Andrew Catsaras appeared. And Catsaras bucked the trend by noting that Labor’s position is not all that awful. He demonstrated that on a two-party-preferred basis, Labor was on 46 per cent to the Liberal/National coalition’s 54 per cent. That’s far from glamorous of course, and Labor would be delighted if the figures were reversed. But Catsaras made two points. One, incumbents have come from further behind to eventually win an election. Two, while Gillard isn’t popular in the electorate, she still leads her opposite number — the Liberals’ Tony Abbott — on a head-to-head basis.
If an election were held tomorrow, Labor would clearly be in trouble. But the next election isn’t tomorrow. It’s a year and a half away.
Well that was a fascinating opinion poll this week, wasn’t it? … It told us all that though democracy is preferable to the alternatives, it’s not perfect; and that maybe regular elections are not enough to satisfy the real desires of the electorate. … I am referring, of course, to the International polling in Fiji by the Lowy Institute.
Barrie Cassidy, ABC News
Tongue firmly planted in cheek, the ABC’s Barrie Cassidy talks about opinion polls… in Fiji. The country’s dictator, Commodore Frank Bainimarama, has recorded an approval rating of 66 per cent. That’s far more than what our prime minister, the embattled Julia Gillard, could hope for currently. Bainimarama has never faced an election, having claimed power in a coup d’etat. Gillard ‘won’ last years federal election, and things have gone downhill for her ever since. Certainly, more people seem to be calling for Gillard to stand down than anyone has of Bainimarama in Fiji.
Of course, Bainimarama has guns. And he’s restricted News Limited from operating the country’s major newspaper. So these factors probably have some bearing on the polling results. Gillard mightn’t want blood in the streets. But she mightn’t be too troubled by curtailing the tabloid and conservative press.
Resign, Julia. Resign yourself to the fact you’ve failed. Resign yourself to the fact nothing you do has a desirable political effect. Resign yourself to the fact that no matter what you say, nobody listens. Resign yourself to the certainty that you’re leading your party to electoral slaughter.
Phillip Adams, commentator
Another day, another obituary for the government. ABC Radio presenter and commentator Phillip Adams has added his name to the list of people calling for Prime Minister Julia Gillard to stand aside. Adams reckons the only person fit for the job now is Gillard’s predecessor, Kevin Rudd. To be fair, Adams also acknowledges he’s been a long-term supporter of Rudd — he even said on the night of Rudd’s knifing that Labor had ‘just committed suicide’ — but sees that none of the problems that Gillard pledged to fix when she replaced Rudd have actually been resolved. In fact, some (like the asylum-seeker issue) have become even worse for the government.
There is just one thought I have as I read columns like this: it’s two years until the next election. Two years. Yes, Labor is in a truly awful position right now. Its polling could hardly get that much worse. (With primary vote support below 30 per cent, there’s certainly more upside than downside.) But if Gillard can hold her government together through until the next election — and it’s in the interests of Labor and the Greens and independents that support her minority administration that she does — there is no reason why Labor couldn’t secure some wins between now and 2013 that at least put them in a stronger (if not commanding) position. While the media cycle focuses on play-by-play analysis and comment, what really matters is how voters mark the papers they stuff in the ballot box every three years. That’s not to suggest any comeback would be easy. But it’s certainly not impossible.
Fewer than 48 hours separated the two extremes of Julia Gillard’s prime ministership.
Shaun Carney, associate editor of The Age, contrasts Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s appearance with partner Tim Mathieson on the Nine Network’s 60 Minutes programme with her prosecution of the government’s proposed carbon tax
How hard is it to run a government? ‘Very’, it seems, judging by the travails of the current minority administration of Julia Gillard. Her Labor party seems to lurch from crisis to crisis, with an opposition constantly snapping at its heels. This has seemingly left Labor risk-averse and unsure of itself — which, in turn, is further compounding their electoral woes, with commentary commonly judging the government as weak and indecisive.
As Shaun Carney writes, Labor is too often giving ammunition to its critics. On climate change, it is at last starting to fight back. Armed with new reports from advisory bodies, the government is putting its case more forcefully. Despite negative polling, there is now a sense the government might just be able to get its proposed carbon tax off the ground. And yet Labor is prone to foolish moves that undermine its credibility. Carney cites Gillard’s appearance on 60 Minutes last Sunday — a puff piece about her and the ‘first bloke’, Tim Mathieson. With important policy challenges facing the government, what value was there in trawling through the PM’s love life? Rather than helping voters to ‘connect’ with Gillard, it has been panned as little more than spin — raising again the notions of ‘fake’ and ‘real’ Julias that haunted her in last year’s election. Such things are an unnecessary distraction that reveal absolutely nothing about what Labor stands for. The only way to address that is by advocating competent, well-justified policies. If the polls are any guide, few people believe that’s what the government is doing today.
What's that, chief?
This is probably not news that the Liberals would want to see circulated too widely, but it seems the nation’s CEOs are backing Tony Abbott over Julia Gillard as their preferred prime minister. In a survey for Business Spectator, just 26 per cent of CEOs polled thought the current PM should be kept on — 52 per cent wanted to tell her she was fired, with Abbott getting their support. Many might regard this as unsurprising: public perceptions are that the Liberals are the party of big business. And indeed, the key policy area that CEOs back the Liberals on is industrial relations — even though Abbott has vowed to make no changes in at least the first term of a new coalition government.
