For months, American political pundits have reminded us that it’s a long time until November. During an extraordinarily long election season those words have certainly had their merit. Few Democrats would have expected 12 months ago that Hillary Clinton would fail to become their party’s nominee. Republicans had little idea who their nominee was to be, with a wide open field and different candidates all taking their turns to lead in opinion polls. Yet now the race has closed to two candidates: the youthful and charismatic Barack Obama for the Democrats, and the experienced war veteran John McCain for the Republicans. And despite having his party’s nomination (presumptively) sown up months earlier than his rival, McCain is struggling.
The opinion polls have consistently shown Obama enjoying a commanding lead over his Republican challenger. CNN’s ‘poll of polls’ currently sees Obama leading McCain 47 per cent to 41 per cent. More troublingly for the McCain camp, a new Fox News poll shows that a clear majority of Americans believe that Obama will win November’s presidential election. Only 27 per cent of those polled believe McCain will win. With so few rating the Senator from Arizona’s chances, it now seems hard to imagine a McCain victory.
To be fair, McCain was always going to have a challenge trying to woo the electorate. The Republicans are deeply unpopular. Many Americans remain resolutely opposed to the Iraq war, and blame the Republicans for leading them into the conflict in the first place. One might have expected the relative success of the ’surge’ strategy, which McCain had strongly advocated, to have reversed this trend somewhat. Yet as the situation in Baghdad has improved, the economic turmoil that has spread from Wall Street to Main Street has caused angst among voters. As people lose their homes and jobs, again voters are inclined to blame the current inhabitant of the White House — President George W Bush — and his party. This guilt by association could be mitigated if McCain had a credible economic message to trumpet. But he does not. McCain’s relative inexperience in economic policy leaves him open to charges of being ill-equipped to deal with the current crisis.
Obama, of course, is no economic expert either. Indeed, his pledges to renegotiate trade agreements during the Democratic primaries sounded alarming to those who recognise the efficiency of the free market. This protectionist rhetoric seems to have abated since June, although he appears to remain opposed to a stalled free trade agreement with Colombia. Obama, having played to the left during the primaries, is now trying to appeal to independent and centrist-minded voters. Trade is just one issue where his message has changed. Even on Iraq, Obama’s plans for immediate withdrawal have become more nuanced, recognising the need to consider the facts on the ground. Still, Obama is yet to be described as a ‘flip-flopper’ — the label that torpedoed John Kerry’s campaign for the presidency in 2004.
The biggest advantage Obama has, and one that has seemingly enabled him to sail past challenges that might have pulled lesser candidates unstuck, is that his campaign generates excitement. It is not merely that he is the first African American candidate to be nominated by a major party. He is charming, engaging, and inspiring — particular to young Americans, who have tended to shun mainstream politics as being irrelevant to them. By contrast, McCain looks old and his campaign confused. There is no coherent, overarching message to sell to the electorate. This is a problem. People need to a compelling reason to pay attention to the McCain campaign. Currently there is none. Unless McCain can articulate a clear — and perhaps more importantly, exciting — vision for his presidency, no amount of time will be able to turn around his flagging support. November is not that far away.