The people of Zimbabwe have suffered at the hands of President Robert Mugabe for decades. Violence and intimidation have long been tools of his regime, directed all too often against his political opponents and their supporters. This, of course, is abhorrent. But his government has been able to inflict far greater misery than that caused simply by bullets and bloodshed. The economic crisis which the octogenarian tyrant has inflicted upon his country has left Zimbabweans struggling to buy even the most basic of commodities. Store shelves are routinely bare and petrol bowsers empty amid devastating hyperinflation that now exceeds two million per cent. Core infrastructure is crumbling: roads are deteriorating, the electricity network is giving out, and hospitals are unable to replace ageing equipment. The world has seen many horrible governments over time, but Mugabe’s must surely rank as one of the worst. Through a combination of malice and ineptitude, Zimbabwe is a nation in ruin.
Understandably, Zimbabwe’s voters tried to rid themselves of Mugabe. In elections earlier this year, an overwhelming turnout for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change could not be concealed by ballot stuffing and vote tampering. The MDC was able, for the first time, to wrest control of the nation’s parliament from the ruling ZANU-PF. The MDC’s leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, garnered more votes than Mugabe — though not enough, by the official count at least, to avoid a run-off poll. It was during the lead up to that second round ballot that the violence intensified. Opposition members and supporters were chased from their homes. Those that refused to go quietly were brutally beaten, sometimes killed. Just a week before the second round vote, Tsvangirai withdrew citing concerns about safety and security, leaving Mugabe to clinch the presidency uncontested. He had himself sworn in just days later.
The international community has managed an embarrassingly mixed response to the situation in Zimbabwe. While western powers have condemned Mugabe in the strongest terms, many of his African allies have dithered. American and European leaders pursued international sanctions against the regime through the UN Security Council. Yet China and Russia both employed their veto powers to block the measures. South African President Thabo Mbeki has been allowed to continue his policy of ‘quiet diplomacy’ — essentially amounting to inaction, helping to buffer Mugabe from much of the world’s scorn. Yet, following a call from the African Union to pursue a power-sharing arrangement, South Africa has at least managed to broker a deal between ZANU-PF and the MDC.
The agreement is an historic one. For the first time in a decade, Mugabe and Tsvangirai have met face to face to sign a memorandum of understanding. Previous opportunities to bring the two together in the same room had been rebuffed by one side or the other. Still, it remains to be seen whether the deal amounts to little more than a photo opportunity. Little headway has been made in resolving the two sides’ substantial differences. Mugabe wants to stay in power, with only a few MDC leaders being co-opted into his failed government. By contrast, the MDC wants to see Mugabe go, although some have hinted that the tyrant might be allowed to remain a ceremonial head of state. Clearly ordinary Zimbabweans want Mugabe’s reign to end — that, after all, was what they voted for. Yet without sufficient pressure, it seems hard to imagine this happening soon.
The risk now is that the pretence of a deal will allow the international community to divert their attention elsewhere. This would be a mistake. While in principle the negotiations should be welcomed, it is important to remember that Zimbabwe has been down this road before — the MDC have tried to negotiate in good faith for reform, but have had their advances repeatedly rebuffed by an obstinate regime. Tsvangirai should only proceed now if there is a realistic prospect of reaching an acceptable settlement. Specifically, he should continue to demand an outcome that reflects the will of the Zimbabwean people. Accepting moderate ZANU-PF leaders into a new MDC-led administration might be a valid compromise. But it is time for Mugabe to go.
[...] After years of ineffective ‘leadership’ on trying to resolve Zimbabwe’s woes, South African President Thabo Mbeki appears to be making some headway in trying to broker an agreement between Mugabe and Tsvangirai. The two leaders and their backers have been involved in negotiations to see if common ground between the two sides can be established. Some African leaders have spruiked the idea of a formal power-sharing arrangement, with Tsvangirai taking on a strengthened post of Prime Minister, with Mugabe largely stripped of his powers as a ceremonial head of state. While this would be an improvement on the present situation, it fundamentally ignores the reality that most Zimbabweans unambiguously want Mugabe gone. [...]