From the desk of Nick Ford

Political leaks a sign of policy cracks

Fri, 30 Jul 2010 20:24:00 +1000

Political leaks a sign of policy cracks:

Week one of the election campaign did not see the coalition get off to a great start. But since last Sunday’s debate — such as it was — Tony Abbott is looking more disciplined, perhaps even more “prime-ministerial”. Meanwhile, things have gone from “not great” to “appalling” for Labor, with Julia Gillard being hounded by journalists armed with fantastic inside information about the workings of the current government. If week one failed to capture any policy substance, week two hasn’t even touched on policy fluff for Labor — much of the attention instead focused on Gillard’s role during Rudd’s abruptly curtailed reign. As the ABC’s Chris Uhlmann opines, the problem now bedevelling Gillard’s campaign is a growing community perception that Labor is a party of quick political fixes rather than real solutions. Already we’ve seen the mining tax rejig, the ‘Timor solution’, and Labor’s widely-panned citizens’ assembly on climate change. With three weeks still to go in this campaign, there’s a risk of more policy bandaids coming unstuck. It is Labor’s election to lose — and they just might.

"Given recent leaks, some in Labor may be wishing they did have some Colombian-style hit squads in..."

Fri, 30 Jul 2010 20:23:24 +1000

“Given recent leaks, some in Labor may be wishing they did have some Colombian-style hit squads in their ranks.”

- Australian Financial Review, ‘Off Message’ column

Spot the difference

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 17:41:01 +1000

Spot the difference:

Tony Abbott isn’t on the nose with voters — he just hasn’t given them a compelling reason to elect a coalition government yet. That’s the verdict of Glenn Milne, trying to divine the tea leaves as presented by opinion pollsters. In that sense, there’s bad news for both major parties. For Labor, there is an alarming lack of enthusiasm within the community for Julia Gillard. In this story, if Labor is returned to power (as currently seems likely), it will be down to a lack of any appealing alternative — not out of satisfaction with the job the government has done in its first term. This will place tremendous pressure on a second term Labor administration. For the Liberals, the challenge is to capture the electorate’s attention with a groundbreaking policy that will swing votes. That’s easier said than done. Such policies tend to be risky bets — while they can win votes, they can also lose plenty as well. What’s clear is that the current approach of trying to avoid any meaningful policy differences with Labor will not be enough to make Abbott the next Prime Minister. With less than four weeks until polling day, there’s still much work to be done by both sides.

Let's talk about sex

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 18:09:55 +1000

Let's talk about sex:

As a new political force, the Australian Sex Party has obviously aroused some controversy, with even its choice of name enough to get social conservatives screaming “won’t someone please think of the children!”. But behind any seductive fascade, the Australian Sex Party, and its leader Fiona Patten, actually offer something truly remarkable to voters — a liberal choice. Sure, they are hardly alone in occupying this territory (Australia has a Liberal Democratic Party, for instance, which certainly has a substantially more developed economic policy platform). However, Patten’s mob have actually been able to grab headlines, and according to Business Spectator’s Rob Burgess, might play a deciding role in two lower house electorates: Melbourne (being vacated by the retiring finance minister, Lindsay Tanner) and Bennelong (better known as John Howard’s old seat, now held by former ABC journalist Maxine McKew).

Curiously, what may be intended as a protest vote against the Gillard government could help secure Labor victory in those seats, depending on how people order their preferences. This would have a devastating effect for the Greens, who may be denied the chance to claim the seat of Melbourne — a prize they have been eyeing for some time. Getting screwed by the Australian Sex Party is probably not something Bob Brown and his colleagues would be hoping for.

"Initially, I was bitterly disappointed to be missing out on my favourite portion of the electoral..."

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 18:04:41 +1000

“Initially, I was bitterly disappointed to be missing out on my favourite portion of the electoral cycle, especially in a travel situation where it would be so hard to keep up with all that was going on at home. But after nearly two weeks of campaigning I’ve got to say that I’m actually relieved to have some distance between me, my country, and its politics.”

- Scott Bridges, writer

The degree of disinterest that this election season seems to be generating is truly fascinating. I’ve been overseas for an election before — the last Victorian poll — and so I know what Scott Bridges is talking about when he describes being cut off from what’s going on back home. As a political junkie, missing out on an election should be tough. Yet I can honestly say, were I travelling abroad right now, I don’t think I’d even bother to check in with what’s happening on the campaign trail here. Almost two weeks in, and I remain despondent about the depths of banality to which Australian politics seems to have descended. The title of Bridges’ article for The Drum is “Australian politics: an embarrassment”. I couldn’t agree more.

Lessons on inflation

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 20:59:31 +1000

Lessons on inflation:

If sales of obscure, out-of-print book titles are any indication, financial gurus seems increasingly troubled by the prospect of significant inflation in the US and Europe. With interest rates at zero or near-zero per cent, American and European central bankers have pumped out tremendous amounts of money to prop up their economies. Under ordinary circumstances, it would be a recipe for massive price instability. Hence some bankers have been keen to read first-hand accounts of what the world looks like in an era of hyperinflation. As Ambrose Evans-Prichard of Britain’s Daily Telegraph explains, they’re opening up the history books to learn lessons from pre-WWII Germany.

"Here’s the plot: an unmarried, foreign-born, atheist woman whose partner is a male hairdresser wants..."

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 20:58:20 +1000

“Here’s the plot: an unmarried, foreign-born, atheist woman whose partner is a male hairdresser wants to lead a major nation famous for manly men. Her opponent is the “Mad Monk” — a Speedo-loving amateur boxer who once studied to be a priest. The latest Fox sitcom? Nope, it’s the script for next month’s Australian election.”

- William Pesek, Bloomberg News

It’s good to see the rest of the world is enjoying our election, even if it’s boring-as-batshit for those of us living through it. I find it disturbing that the first week of the campaign was so devoid of substance that I was unable to find any scope for meaningful analysis. (And the remaining four weeks don’t offer much hope either.) The sense that this is ‘an election about nothing’ is, frankly, infuriating.

An independent umpire?

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 21:17:44 +1000

An independent umpire?:

Has Treasury Secretary Ken Henry’s reputation been shot? That’s the conclusion of Oliver Marc Hartwich, writing for Business Spectator. Formerly of a British think tank, Policy Exchange, Hartwich reckons the next Australian government should import a recently-adopted idea from the UK — an independent budgetary arbiter (what is known in Britain as the Office of Budget Responsibility). The strength of such an independent agency would be to provide credibility to fiscal forecasts, free from accusations of political manipulation.

The inherent problem behind such a suggestion though is that economic forecasting is not an exact science. It all depends on the assumptions you use, and the data you have to hand. When the facts change, so do the numbers. Just ask a meteorologist.

"For me this is just another illustration of the futility of drug prohibition … and if..."

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 17:51:38 +1000

“For me this is just another illustration of the futility of drug prohibition … and if criminalising drugs hasn’t worked, what you need to do is treat drugs as a health and social phenomenon”

- Alex Wodak, drug and alcohol specialist at St Vincent’s Hospital

Laws against the use of ‘illicit’ drugs clearly leave a lot to be desired. To the extent that they are intended to stop people from inflicting harm upon themselves, they fail — plenty of people continue to take drugs. From uni students smoking pot to high-flying sports stars snorting cocaine, prohibition does not mean that people don’t touch drugs. What it does mean is that the problem is buried, and that any underlying problems that exist are left unresolved. And now there’s another dimension to the problem: the failure of legislators to keep up with changing trends. Hence the appearance of so-called ‘legal highs’, which can be purchased by school kids online. Strictly speaking, not all the substances captured by this term are legal in Australia, but customs officials are struggling to keep up with the inflow of goods being ordered. Just one more piece of evidence that victory can never be achieved in the costly ‘war on drugs’.

A font of knowledge

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 17:41:32 +1000

A font of knowledge:

Like most people, I suspect you probably don’t care about fonts. I do. I love finding new fonts with unique and interesting designs. I find the selection of an appropriate font an integral part of any design process. As James Cameron, director of 3D blockbuster Avatar, discovered, choosing the wrong font can leave you open to scorn and ridicule. (The movie used ‘Papyrus’ for its promotional material and subtitles.) While I don’t consider myself a ‘font snob’, I do draw the line at Comic Sans. Unless you’re deliberately being ironic, it’s a font you should never, ever use.

"The restrictions on marriage apply equally to everyone, whether heterosexual or homosexual. Thus..."

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 17:40:49 +1000

“The restrictions on marriage apply equally to everyone, whether heterosexual or homosexual. Thus there is no discrimination. The homosexual lobby is seeking to fundamentally rewrite the rule books on marriage to get all the benefits while avoiding the obligations.”

- Bill Muehlenberg, Family Council of Victoria

Apparently the government has a core interest in preserving heterosexual marriage, and the best reason for this according to ‘family values’ campaigners is because heterosexual couples have children. Except, of course, not all married partners have kids — whether by choice or biology. Strangely, there’s no suggestion about what to do with ‘barren’ — as Wilson Tuckey might put it — couples. Perhaps that’s because it’s got nothing to do with children, but in fact is driven by an outdated mindset that reckons there’s something ‘wrong’ with homosexuality. It’s the sort of baseless moral pontification society can do without.

As far as I’m concerned, marriage should not be subject to any privileges conferred by laws. While legal recognition may be justified for the purposes of simplifying administation — for example, identifying next of kin — there’s no inherent reason for acknowledging that two married people have any more ‘special’ a place in society than those in a long-term de facto relationship, or indeed those who remain single. People enter into all sorts of relationships without the state conferring specific benefits. Why should marriage be any different?

"But you see, the Liberals can’t walk away from WorkChoices. I mean, Tony Abbott trying to walk..."

Tue, 20 Jul 2010 21:32:00 +1000

“But you see, the Liberals can’t walk away from WorkChoices. I mean, Tony Abbott trying to walk away from WorkChoices would be like Richie Benaud saying he doesn’t like cricket anymore – it’s just unbelievable.”

- Wayne Swan (ALP), Treasurer, speaking to the ABC’s Lyndal Curtis

Invest in a bank? He'd rather walk the plank...

Tue, 20 Jul 2010 21:31:10 +1000

Invest in a bank? He'd rather walk the plank...:

Would you take financial advice from a pirate? Ordinarily, I’d say no. But you might be inclined to listen to this one. Gordon Dickson started life as a banker in 1965, rising to the role of senior risk officer at the Bank of Scotland. He retired in 2000, just before Bank of Scotland merged with Halifax Building Society to form HBOS. Fast forward ten years, and having seen HBOS collapse under the weight of the global financial crisis — and, along with it, a large chunk of his wealth wiped away — Dickson now occupies his time as a children’s entertainer, ‘Pete the Pirate’. With the British government looking to offload its stakes in two major financial institutions, ‘Pete’ insists that the culture of high finance hasn’t changed, and that people shouldn’t yet feel confident about investing in banks.

"Wayne Swan is to surpluses what Paris Hilton is to celibacy."

Tue, 20 Jul 2010 21:16:12 +1000

“Wayne Swan is to surpluses what Paris Hilton is to celibacy.”

- Joe Hockey (Liberal), Shadow Treasurer, speaking to media about Labor’s pledge to cut the budget deficit

"This is a make-or-break election for Julie Bishop. If the coalition loses, she is expected to be..."

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 21:19:00 +1000

“This is a make-or-break election for Julie Bishop. If the coalition loses, she is expected to be replaced as deputy opposition leader. A victory would see her make history, to be Australia’s first woman foreign minister.”

- Michelle Grattan, The Age

Much of the opening commentary on the 2010 election has failed to offer anything particularly new or insightful — largely reflecting the quality of the policies and, to a lesser extent, personalities on offer. But Michelle Grattan’s comment today about the deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop is an interesting one.

Some have certainly questioned Bishop’s abilities in the past, with the acknowledgement that she has only stuck around either because knifing a female leader might be unseemly, or because she has provided some measure of consistency across the three leaders (Brendan Nelson, Malcolm Turnbull and now Tony Abbott) the party has had since losing the last election. Yet it’s hard to see on what basis the Liberals would think a change of deputy would improve their chances. Apart from anything, who would be better?

The Battle for Canberra

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 21:05:42 +1000

The election season is officially upon us now — parliament has been dissolved, and in just under five weeks, Australians will vote on a new government. The smart money currently seems to be on a returned Labor administration, with Julia Gillard assuming an ‘elected’ role as Prime Minister. But it would be foolish to totally discount the chances of a resurgent coalition under Tony Abbott. The Liberals and Nationals could yet make gains in Western Australia and Queensland, as well as in marginal New South Wales seats.

And yet it feels like none of it really matters.

Sure, Australia’s two major parties have been close on key policy issues for some time now. But they currently seem to be aping each other on virtually anything of substance. On asylum seekers, both sides are desperate to appear toughest — as if refugees are a threat to ‘our way of life’. On climate change, neither side will do anything of substance in the next term of government. On economic management, both sides are obsessed with cutting the deficit — which, on its own, is fine. But there is no substantive debate about policy fundamentals, including many of the commendable ideas raised in the recent Henry tax review, let alone any ideas for the sort of microeconomic reform that could spur future productivity advances.

As an ardent observer of politics, this is the most depressing election contest I’ve faced. As a classical liberal, neither Labor nor the Liberals come within cooee of offering what I would regard as good policy. I am left with a thoroughly unpalatable choice that actually leaves me wondering if I want to bother marking a ballot paper at all. (Strictly speaking, voting is not compulsory in Australia — the only requirement is that you get your name marked off the electoral roll.) And that fills me with regret, because as a staunch proponent of democracy, I recognise that millions around the world are denied the chance to express their preferences. They would do anything to enjoy the freedom we do. But the value of political expression seems pretty small when the choices on offer are so awful.

So, for me, this election campaign is less about “moving forward” (Labor) or wanting to see “real action” (Liberal). It’s about hope that at some point before 21 August, I see some distinguishing characteristic between the two parties that might actually give me a basis for preferencing one over the other. While I can take some comfort that (in a marginal sense) my individual vote is virtually irrelevant to the ultimate outcome, each marginal voter faces the exact same quandary. That this is what the quality of politics in this country has become is sad indeed.

"It’s a measure of America’s misery that in a new era of deflation and tight credit, it celebrates a..."

Fri, 16 Jul 2010 10:36:31 +1000

“It’s a measure of America’s misery that in a new era of deflation and tight credit, it celebrates a bill that curbs the banks. It won’t actually curb the sort of excesses that caused the crisis, but it will certainly get under the banks’ feet.”

- Alan Kohler, Business Spectator

A new era of financial regulation has commenced in the US. But, although it’s billed as helping to stop a future financial crisis, it fails to tackle some key issues — including, perhaps most significantly, ignoring the role of quasi-government mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Moreover, the weaknesses of monetary policy — such as the so-called ‘Greenspan Put’, where banks can count on massive interest cuts at the merest hint of the industry wobbling — are also unaddressed. And it also does absolutely nothing about institutions that are ‘too big too fail’ — there is no credibility in the claim that the government won’t in future bailout an ailing but systemically-important institution. In short, the new era looks much like the old one — just with greater costs imposed on the financial sector. That’s Washington for you.

"In the transition to digital many of them stopped printing their images. And that’s a family..."

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 21:42:40 +1000

“In the transition to digital many of them stopped printing their images. And that’s a family tragedy because although it’s a business, we’re looking after people’s memories.”

- Paul Curtis, Photo Imaging Council of Australia (quoted by ABC News)

Ummm. I might have missed something here. How does printing digital photos protect “people’s memories”? I can’t remember the last photo I printed out. I store mine on my computer, backing important files on CDs and memory sticks, while others are also saved online (such as on Facebook).

Professional photo developers are going through the same sort of adjustment that manufacturers of horse carriages did when cars started rolling off production lines, and as manufacturers of typewriters did when personal computing became the dominant form of word processing. This is the very essence of what Schumpeter described as “creative destruction”. New innovations force us all to adapt — and those that don’t adapt will perish. I find it hard to get misty-eyed about the past.

Just who is running this party anyway?

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 21:40:39 +1000

Just who is running this party anyway?:

A glance at today’s newspapers suggests that the Labor party’s former leaders can’t help but attract attention long after they’ve left the scene. The long-simmering feud between Bob Hawke and his former deputy and eventual successor Paul Keating has blown up again following a new book released by Hawke’s wife. Meanwhile, Kevin Rudd has been busy plotting his very own coup d’etat on the foreign affairs portfolio, with the latest example of his hunger for the job being a (frankly baffling) meet-and-greet with UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. Add to the mix Mark Latham, who uses a regular column in the Financial Review to lob hand grenades into the partyroom that jettisoned him as leader after the 2004 election, and you’ve got a fantastic concoction of egos that the party’s current big wigs must be delighted to see heading into an election. As Annabel Crabb observes, surely new leader Julia Gillard must have been hoping for her predecessors to keep out of the spotlight just a little while longer.

"[The] truth will record the great structural changes that occurred during our years and my own as..."

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 21:39:10 +1000

“[The] truth will record the great structural changes that occurred during our years and my own as Prime Minister, but it will also record without favour, how lucky you were to have me drive the government during your down years, leaving you with the credit for much of the success.”

- Paul Keating, former Australian Prime Minister, in a letter to Bob Hawke (his predecessor) regarding claims made in a new book authored by Hawke’s wife, Blanche d’Alpuget