An independent umpire?

Has Treasury Secretary Ken Henry’s reputation been shot? That’s the conclusion of Oliver Marc Hartwich, writing for Business Spectator. Formerly of a British think tank, Policy Exchange, Hartwich reckons the next Australian government should import a recently-adopted idea from the UK — an independent budgetary arbiter (what is known in Britain as the Office of Budget Responsibility). The strength of such an independent agency would be to provide credibility to fiscal forecasts, free from accusations of political manipulation. 

The inherent problem behind such a suggestion though is that economic forecasting is not an exact science. It all depends on the assumptions you use, and the data you have to hand. When the facts change, so do the numbers. Just ask a meteorologist.