Political leaks a sign of policy cracks

Week one of the election campaign did not see the coalition get off to a great start. But since last Sunday’s debate — such as it was — Tony Abbott is looking more disciplined, perhaps even more “prime-ministerial”. Meanwhile, things have gone from “not great” to “appalling” for Labor, with Julia Gillard being hounded by journalists armed with fantastic inside information about the workings of the current government. If week one failed to capture any policy substance, week two hasn’t even touched on policy fluff for Labor — much of the attention instead focused on Gillard’s role during Rudd’s abruptly curtailed reign. As the ABC’s Chris Uhlmann opines, the problem now bedevelling Gillard’s campaign is a growing community perception that Labor is a party of quick political fixes rather than real solutions. Already we’ve seen the mining tax rejig, the ‘Timor solution’, and Labor’s widely-panned citizens’ assembly on climate change. With three weeks still to go in this campaign, there’s a risk of more policy bandaids coming unstuck. It is Labor’s election to lose — and they just might.

Given recent leaks, some in Labor may be wishing they did have some Colombian-style hit squads in their ranks.

Spot the difference

Tony Abbott isn’t on the nose with voters — he just hasn’t given them a compelling reason to elect a coalition government yet. That’s the verdict of Glenn Milne, trying to divine the tea leaves as presented by opinion pollsters. In that sense, there’s bad news for both major parties. For Labor, there is an alarming lack of enthusiasm within the community for Julia Gillard. In this story, if Labor is returned to power (as currently seems likely), it will be down to a lack of any appealing alternative — not out of satisfaction with the job the government has done in its first term. This will place tremendous pressure on a second term Labor administration. For the Liberals, the challenge is to capture the electorate’s attention with a groundbreaking policy that will swing votes. That’s easier said than done. Such policies tend to be risky bets — while they can win votes, they can also lose plenty as well. What’s clear is that the current approach of trying to avoid any meaningful policy differences with Labor will not be enough to make Abbott the next Prime Minister. With less than four weeks until polling day, there’s still much work to be done by both sides.

Let's talk about sex

As a new political force, the Australian Sex Party has obviously aroused some controversy, with even its choice of name enough to get social conservatives screaming “won’t someone please think of the children!”. But behind any seductive fascade, the Australian Sex Party, and its leader Fiona Patten, actually offer something truly remarkable to voters — a liberal choice. Sure, they are hardly alone in occupying this territory (Australia has a Liberal Democratic Party, for instance, which certainly has a substantially more developed economic policy platform). However, Patten’s mob have actually been able to grab headlines, and according to Business Spectator’s Rob Burgess, might play a deciding role in two lower house electorates: Melbourne (being vacated by the retiring finance minister, Lindsay Tanner) and Bennelong (better known as John Howard’s old seat, now held by former ABC journalist Maxine McKew).

Curiously, what may be intended as a protest vote against the Gillard government could help secure Labor victory in those seats, depending on how people order their preferences. This would have a devastating effect for the Greens, who may be denied the chance to claim the seat of Melbourne — a prize they have been eyeing for some time. Getting screwed by the Australian Sex Party is probably not something Bob Brown and his colleagues would be hoping for.

Initially, I was bitterly disappointed to be missing out on my favourite portion of the electoral cycle, especially in a travel situation where it would be so hard to keep up with all that was going on at home. But after nearly two weeks of campaigning I’ve got to say that I’m actually relieved to have some distance between me, my country, and its politics.